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Potential for Experiencing Negative Returns in Domestic Stocks, January 1926 to March 2025
Volatility can unnerve investors who watch the stock market too closely. This table seeks to put volatility in perspective by suggesting that longer holding periods are historically less likely to experience negative returns, assuming portfolio performance mirrored the performance of the S&P 500 index.
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Magnitudes of Bull and Bear Markets
Since 1950, there have been a number of bear markets, defined as a drop of 20% or more from the market's previous high, as measured by the performance of the S&P 500 index. During these bear markets, stocks fell an average of 33% and gained an average of 151% in the subsequent bull markets.
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Bond Market Composition Since 1987
This chart shows the composition of the fixed-income market in the United States over time, based on outstanding debt. In recent years, the federal agency and money market sectors experienced declines in issuance while the Treasury and corporate debt markets saw increases.
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U.S. Market Performance Within the Industrialized World
This chart shows how the U.S. stock market fared annually between 1972 and 2024 in relation to other developed foreign markets. It shows the annual performance of the United States alongside the highest and lowest performing markets for the same year from the following group: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland (data beginning in 1988), Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. During this period, the U.S. has rarely been the strongest or weakest performing market of the group.
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U.S. Stock Market and Economic Contractions
This chart indicates the changes in the performance of the U.S. stock market (based on the total returns of the S&P 500) before, during, and after each of the 10 recognized economic contractions that have occurred since 1950. As a general rule, contractions were approximately associated with market declines while the market tended to rise during periods of expansion.
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Inflation and Unemployment Rates (Decade Averages)
This chart, which compares inflation with unemployment rates for the period from January 1950 through December 2024, shows that for the most recent period, the United States is experiencing below-average inflation and an unemployment rate that is slightly above the historic average of 5.6%.
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Consumer Price Index and Its Components
This chart tracks the Consumer Price Index and its components for the period from December 31, 1985, through December 31, 2024 (1985 = 100).
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Range of Returns for Three Major Asset Classes
With higher return potential usually comes greater risk. Consider these performance statistics for indexes representing major asset classes. Stocks may have shown the greatest average returns but also the widest range of observed returns. Bonds have shown much less variation in returns but also a significantly lower average. Cash alternatives, also known as money market investments, were the only investments that showed no measurable occurrence of loss, but their average returns were minimal, even compared with bonds.
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Equity Performance During Expansionary and Restrictive Monetary Policy
This chart suggests that during periods of restrictive monetary policy, equities as measured by the S&P 500 index have tended to perform more poorly than during periods of expansionary monetary policy.
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Potential for Experiencing Negative Returns in Investment-Grade Bonds, January 1926 to March 2025
This table seeks to put volatility in perspective by suggesting that longer holding periods are historically less likely to experience negative returns, assuming portfolio performance mirrored the performance of the indicated bond market benchmarks.
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Increasing Holding Period Decreases Variability of Returns
This chart shows how indexes that represented stock and bond performance behaved on average during various periods of time from January 1, 1926, through March 31, 2025. Based on these averages, returns were much less variable for longer holding periods than for shorter periods.
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Trading Days With Changes of 1% or More in Domestic Stock Prices
Stock market volatility may unnerve investors who watch it closely. This chart could help put daily volatility in perspective. It shows that while daily moves of 1% or more have been relatively common at some points, there have been significant variations from year to year. Investors should keep this in mind when evaluating daily changes in stock prices.
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Holding Period Returns Since 1946
This chart displays indexes representing the performance of stocks, bonds, cash, and inflation over various periods since 1946.
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Highest and Lowest Returns Over Various Holding Periods Since 1926
This chart shows the performance of indexes representing the range of returns for stocks and bonds during the indicated periods from March 31, 1926, through March 31, 2025.
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Highest and Lowest Returns Over Various Holding Periods Since 1946
This chart shows the performance of indexes representing the range of returns for stocks and bonds during the indicated periods from January 1, 1946, through March 31, 2025.
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Comparative Performance of Stocks and Bonds (Trailing 12-Month Periods)
This chart shows how indexes representing stock and bond performance have outperformed each other at different times during the past 30 years.
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The Effects of Starting Early and Compounding on Investments Over Time
Investor A contributed $20,000 over 10 years, then let compounding work for 20 more years. By December 31, 2024, the account grew to $204,127.
Investor B contributed $80,000 over 20 years double the contributions but ended with only $170,432.
Result: Starting early gave Investor A a $33,695 advantage, despite contributing much less.
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Missing Top-Performing Months in the Stock Market
This table illustrates the potential pitfalls of market timing. The table shows the effects of missing the strongest performing months over long holding periods, assuming that investment performance mirrored the performance of the S&P 500 index.
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Mutual Fund Styles -- Performance as of March 31, 2025
This table shows the relative performance ranking demonstrated by Morningstar benchmarks representing 11 mutual fund styles over the 1-, 3-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year periods ended March 31, 2025.
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Growth of $1 Invested Since 1928
This chart shows the growth of a $1 investment in stocks, bonds, cash, and inflation.
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Growth of $1 Invested Since 1947
This chart shows the potential growth of $1 investments in stocks, bonds, cash, and inflation, assuming that the investments mirrored the performance of their indicated benchmarks.
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Inflation and S&P 500 Price-Earnings Ratio
This chart compares inflation and S&P 500 price-earnings ratio over the past 75 years.
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Ratio of S&P 500 Market Cap to GDP and Inflation, Past 40 Years
This chart compares the ratio of S&P 500 market cap to GDP and inflation annually over the past 40 years.
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Housing Starts (in 000s) and Federal Funds Rate, Past 50 Years
This chart compares housing starts (in 000s) and federal funds rate annually over the past 50 years.
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S&P 500 Market Cap (% of GDP) and Federal Budget Gap (% of GDP), Past 20 Years
This chart shows the S&P 500 market cap (% of GDP) and federal budget gap (% of GDP) over the past 20 years.
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Savings Rate, Per Capita Personal Income, and Per Capita Personal Expenditures, Past 40 Years
This chart compares the savings rate with personal income and expenditures quarterly over the 40-year period ended December 31, 2024.
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Inflation and Unemployment, Past 50 Years
This chart shows inflation and unemployment over the past 50 years.
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Stock Returns, Broken Down by Positive and Negative Periods
This chart demonstrates that, historically (since 1926), holding stocks for longer periods has lowered an investor's chances of seeing negative returns, assuming the stock portfolio mirrored the performance of the S&P 500 index and the investor reinvested all distributions.
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Stocks and Bonds, Income vs. Price Appreciation
This chart compares income with price appreciation for stocks and bonds during the 30-year period ended December 31, 2024. Note that bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of bond yields.
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30-Year Mortgage Rates, Federal Funds Rates, and Spread of Mortgage Rates to Fed Funds, Past 30 Years
This chart compares the 30-year mortgage rates, federal funds rates, and spread of mortgage rates to fed funds monthly over the past 30 years.
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Stocks vs. T-Bills
This chart shows the percentages of time in which stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 index, had historically outperformed Treasury bills and the percentages of time in which Treasury bills had historically outperformed stocks over the potential 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year holding periods that occurred from January 1, 1926, through March 31, 2025.
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Stocks vs. Private Real Estate, Past 20 Years
Over the past 20 years, stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, have generally outperformed real estate, as represented by the total returns of the NCREIF Property Index, although real estate has outperformed in most years this decade.
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Calendar-Year Returns, Past 25 Years
This chart shows the performance of the index representing calendar-year performance of stocks and average calendar-year returns on stocks over the past 25 years.
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Calendar-Year Returns, Past 30 Years
This chart displays the indexes representing the performance of stocks, bonds, cash, and inflation over the past 30 years. The return shown for 2025 is through March 31.
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Returns by Decade Since 1926
This chart displays indexes representing the performance of stocks, bonds, cash, and inflation over each decade since 1926. The first and final decades may not cover exactly 10 years.
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Returns by Decade Since 1970
This chart displays indexes representing the performance of stocks, bonds, cash, and inflation over each decade since 1970. The final decade may not cover exactly 10 years.
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Holding Period Returns Since 1926
This chart displays indexes representing the performance of stocks, bonds, cash, and inflation over various periods since 1926.
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Holding Period Returns, Past 30 Years
This chart displays indexes representing the performance of stocks, bonds, cash, and inflation during various intervals over the past 30 years.
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Risk and Return by Decade
This chart shows how indexes representing stocks have produced different combinations of risk and reward in different decades. Note that the first period is from 1926 to 1939 and the most recent period is from 2000 to March 31, 2025.
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Risk and Return Since 1926
This chart illustrates the historical relationship between risk and return for indexes representing stocks, bonds, cash, 60/40 portfolio, and 40/40/20 portfolio from January 1, 1926, through March 31, 2025.
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Risk and Return, Past 30 Years
This chart demonstrates the historical relationship between risk and return of the indexes representing the indicated asset classes over the 30 years ended March 31, 2025.
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Risk and Return Over 10-Year Periods Since 1926
This chart demonstrates the historical relationship between risk and return for indexes representing various asset classes from January 1, 1926, through March 31, 2025, based on 10-year holding periods.
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Risk and Return Over 10-Year Periods Since 1970
This chart demonstrates the historical relationship between risk and return for indexes representing various asset classes from January 1, 1970, through March 31, 2025, based on 10-year holding periods.
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Average Risk and Return Over 30-Year Periods Since 1926
This chart demonstrates the historical relationship between average risk and average return for indexes representing various asset classes from January 1, 1926, through March 31, 2025, based on all rolling 30-year holding periods.
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Risk and Return Over 30-Year Periods Since 1970
This chart demonstrates the historical relationship between average risk and average return for indexes representing various asset classes from January 1, 1970, through March 31, 2025, based on all rolling 30-year holding periods.
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Growth of $1 Invested Since March 31, 2005
This chart shows the potential growth of $1 investments in stocks, bonds, cash, and inflation, assuming that the investments mirrored the performance of their indicated benchmarks.
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Highest and Lowest Returns Over Various Holding Periods, Past 30 Years
This chart shows the performance of indexes representing the range of returns for stocks and bonds during the indicated periods (1 year, 3 years, etc.) through March 31, 2025.
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Growth of $1 Invested Since March 31, 1995
This chart shows the potential growth of $1 investments in stocks, bonds, cash, and inflation, assuming that the investments mirrored the performance of their indicated benchmarks.
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Comparative Performance of Stocks and Bonds (Trailing 36-Month Periods)
This chart shows how indexes representing stock and bond performance have outperformed each other at different times during the past 30 years.
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Comparative Performance of Stocks and Bonds (Trailing 60-Month Periods)
This chart shows how indexes representing stock and bond performance have outperformed each other at different times during the past 30 years.
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Performance of All-Stock, All-Bond, and Blended Stock/Bond Portfolios Since 1926
Looking back over investment market history since 1926, just about any investment portfolio has shown positive returns over some 12-month periods and negative returns over others. But for each portfolio, some returns were more likely to have occurred than others. This table shows the distribution of returns that occurred for all-stock, all-bond, and blended stock/bond portfolios, assuming that stock and bond performance mirrored the performance of the indicated benchmarks for each.
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Risk and Return of Single-Asset and Mixed Portfolios Since 1926
This chart compares the risk and return potential associated with investing in stocks or bonds versus investing in portfolios that combine the two asset classes, for the period from January 1, 1926, through March 31, 2025. Based on the performance of the indexes that represent those asset classes, a portfolio that blended both might have had a stronger risk-adjusted return than a portfolio that was composed entirely of one or the other.
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Risk and Return of Single-Asset and Mixed Portfolios, Past 10 Years
This chart compares the risk and return potential associated with investing in a single asset class versus investing in portfolios that combine two asset classes, for the period from April 1, 2015, through March 31, 2025. Based on the performance of the indexes that represent those asset classes, a portfolio that blended both might have had a stronger risk-adjusted return than a portfolio that was composed entirely of one or the other.
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Risk and Return of Single-Asset and Mixed Portfolios, Past 30 Years
This chart compares the risk and return potential associated with investing in stocks or bonds versus investing in portfolios that combine the two asset classes, for the period from April 1, 1995, through March 31, 2025. Based on the performance of the indexes that represent those asset classes, a portfolio that blended both might have had a stronger risk-adjusted return than a portfolio that was composed entirely of one or the other.
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Risk and Return of Single-Asset and Mixed Portfolios, Past 50 Years
This chart compares the risk and return potential associated with investing in stocks or bonds versus investing in portfolios that combine the two asset classes, for the period from April 1, 1975, through March 31, 2025. Based on the performance of the indexes that represent those asset classes, a portfolio that blended both might have had a stronger risk-adjusted return than a portfolio that was composed entirely of one or the other.
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